🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Profited $436K from Wagers Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A trader made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was publicly declared, sparking debate about potential gains made from inside knowledge of the US operation. Market Movement in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the leader would be removed from office by the end of January rose in the period preceding former President Trump stated on January 3rd that Maduro had been apprehended. One account, which registered on the site last month and made four bets, all on Venezuela, earned over $436K from a modest bet of $32,537. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before Public Statement Trading information shows that participants assessed the probability of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. However the odds had increased to 11% by shortly before midnight and surged in the morning of January 3rd, suggesting a sharp shift in market sentiment right before the public announcement was made. "This specific wager has all the characteristics of a trade based on inside information," stated a financial reform advocate. A small number of other traders also profited significant sums from bets on the same outcome. Legal Questions Grows Politicians are growing concerned. Proposed legislation put forward on the start of the week seeks to ban public officials from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager. The Prediction Market Landscape Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with users able to bet on everything from elections to politics. Prediction markets were examined under the last presidential term. Yet it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the stock market, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market arena. An official representative for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."