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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.