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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.