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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

However the latest race is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime underperformers improving together. In an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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